Previously, I wrote about COVID-19 and noted how we should take reasonable precautions, trust God, and not be overly concerned. While I still agree with much of that, I think the situation now appears to be significantly more serious than it appeared at the time, and more drastic “reasonable precautions” seem warranted.

We need to keep the virus from overwhelming our medical system

While for most people the virus will be mild, the data seems to say that the death rate can range from 0.5% to 5% depending on whether the infection spreads so rapidly that the health care system gets overwhelmed. In other words, even IF most people eventually get the virus, a critical concern is how fast the infection spreads; we need to keep that rate down so that the health care system doesn’t get overwhelmed. If it’s overwhelmed, people will die from lack of care who otherwise would have lived. So, while it’s likely that many of us will likely get the virus, it seems important to delay the spread of infection enough that the healthcare system doesn’t get swamped.

If you want to read just one post on this, refer to this article with a ton of data that’s consistent with what I’ve been seeing from a variety of sources in the last couple days. I think it’s probably correct, and we need to take this extremely seriously.

We’re going to see dramatic impacts of this virus, I think. It seems like the best case scenario right now in the US is that we are about 8-12 days behind Italy, South Korea, and Iran in terms of spread of the virus – so in the next week or so we’re going to see a large fraction of society shut down temporarily to try and minimize spread. How fast we do that will likely determine what the fatality rate ends up looking like. So either way there are going to be major impacts on almost every aspect of our lives.

We can still trust God, but we should take action

We can trust God with respect to our safety, security and future, and no virus or disaster can change that. However, our actions this week will likely have a large impact on the number of people dying in the United States in the coming weeks. So I believe we need to choose our actions carefully.

Dramatic changes are already happening, and that’s good

My university, UCI, just moved all finals online next week, and then moved all Spring quarter classes online as well. They are also encouraging students to move home to the extent possible. Travel bans are in place, and all exams and meetings now have online options, just as of yesterday and today.

Some universities have taken even more drastic measures; for example, Harvard and MIT are essentially closing student housing and telling students to go home until summer (to attend classes virtually). Google and Amazon are issuing work-from-home orders.

A week ago I would have thought these measures were overkill; now I agree with them 100%. I also told my research group they can work remotely and all meetings can be virtual. We canceled (or postponed) a visit of some elementary students. I encouraged my wife to cancel a swim team registration event this weekend.

This gets personal, too. Today I was scheduled to meet up for lunch with a colleague from a nearby institution, but he suddenly canceled because he had a meeting the other day with someone who had recently traveled internationally and now has a high fever and is being tested. I’m thankful he spoke up and canceled.

Don’t panic, but make changes to reduce risks

A couple of friends wrote me because I’ve been outspoken on the topic. One mentioned a concern that people might get a false impression that this poses low risk to individuals so that lifestyle changes are not necessary. I agree with him completely; lifestyle changes ARE necessary. They’re coming our way, I believe, whether we want them or not. We should change what we’re doing NOW so that fewer people will die in the coming weeks.

Another friend who wrote me connected this with loving our neighbors, and this is probably appropriate. Even if we aren’t likely to be a high risk population ourselves, our actions now as a society will impact the death rate. Perhaps you’ll get it and it will be mild – you might not even know you have it – but you might come into contact with someone for whom it will be serious. This doesn’t mean loving people requires us to cut off all contact, but it means we need to take precautions, make good decisions, and prayerfully consider how God is calling us to love others in this situation.

I’m not saying to panic, or to run out and buy masks. In fact don’t do that. I’m not saying we ought to eliminate all contact with other people, or skip joining with God’s people to worship (though maybe there are ways that we can modify these to reduce risks). But I am saying that we ought to eliminate optional events, especially those that involve contact with significant numbers of people and in close quarters. Move anything you can to a virtual format. Wash hands frequently. Don’t shake hands.

Pray for our leaders – our church leaders and those of our institutions, businesses, governments, and even families. They have hard decisions to make, and need real wisdom. And pray for God to use even this for his glory.

Practically, anyone who is sick in the slightest way ought to stay away from others until it’s confirmed they don’t have COVID-19. Don’t carry on as if it’s life as normal, until this passes and we’re confident that we CAN return to life as normal.

Other posts in this series: