Yesterday, I wrote about how we need to take COVID-19 very seriously. Today, I want to give some additional information I’ve found helpful and also express my concerns about the school system – in general but also specifically here in Orange County.

Flatten the Curve: A really great explanation of the seriousness of this epidemic and what we can do about it

Curve flattening

The idea portrayed in this image above is what helped me realize how critical our current actions are for the overall death rate. Specifically, if we surpass health care system capacity, far more people will die – and the statistics by country so far bear this out. So even if most people eventually get coronavirus, it’s critical we slow its spread so this doesn’t happen.

This image comes from the excellent site Flatten the Curve which gives a really great lay-level analysis of where things stand, how serious it is, and what we can do about it.

There are no plans to close schools in Orange County

As of yesterday, the OC Register was reporting no plans to close schools in Orange County, at least until a teacher or student tests positive. This seems foolhardy to me given the total number of tests being done; the LA Times is reporting only 1158 tests done. In all likelihood, given California’s population, this means no one in OC schools has yet been tested, or only a very small number.

“Flatten the Curve” notes that community spread was already happening for weeks in Seattle before it was detected and now 5-7% of people are testing positive. Community transmission is already going in in Placer and Yolo counties in California as well, the LA Times reported yesterday. They can’t keep up with tests so they are telling everyone with cold- or flu-like symptoms to self-quarantine.

Someone made the point that keeping schools open can be particularly important to ensure our essential workers (health-care workers, police and fire, etc.) don’t have to take off work to care for their children. Given that, I think we should seriously consider making school optional and encouraging all non-essential workers to keep their kids home.

A colleague wrote this on Twitter:

Waiting for a case to appear in schools is a sure-fire way to maximize contagion.

If my kids were physically in school I’d be advocating with my school to change policies in this area. If you want materials you can draw on to help make the case, use Flatten the Curve as well as possibly this letter a parent in the field sent his school.

The State of California says we should cancel all nonessential gatherings over 250 people

Governor Gavin Newsom announced that California public health officials this evening issued an updated policy on gatherings to protect public health and slow the spread of COVID-19. The state’s public health experts have determined that gatherings should be postponed or canceled across the state until at least the end of March. Non-essential gatherings must be limited to no more than 250 people, while smaller events can proceed only if the organizers can implement social distancing of 6 feet per person.

Some tips on transmission

A colleague (Peter Kasson) who has been reading the ECDC, CDC, and WHO-China reports passed along this info via Facebook which seemed useful: Most transmission is from droplets at close range, or surfaces (then touching your eyes/nose/mouth). The key idea then is to avoid close-range droplet transmission and touching contaminated surfaces and then your face. This leads to things like the six-foot guidelines, etc.

Don’t panic, but do take action.

I stand by what I’ve written previously; I don’t want people to panic. We’re not all going to die as a result. But we have a chance to reduce how severe this is going to be, so I’m advocating that we act as much as possible to do so – and try to get those around us and our school systems to also take it seriously. As a Christian, I also believe each of us can trust God even in the midst of this uncertainty and turmoil, because our future is already safe and secure in his hands. But we should still take the actions we can, while also carefully considering our hearts – we need to act with prudence and care, not out of terror.

Other posts in this series: